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Nassau, NY · ZIP 11803 · Census Tract 36059519602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$825K
Downside (P10)
$675K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$854K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.17M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $558K | $573K | $573K | $587K | $612K | $616K | $635K | $691K | $722K | $797K | $825K | $835K | $855K | $854K |
| YoY Change | +2.6% | +0.1% | +2.4% | +4.3% | +0.6% | +3.0% | +8.8% | +4.5% | +10.4% | +3.5% | +1.2% | +2.3% | -0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $648K | $665K | $675K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1000K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$648K to $1000K
42.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$675K to $1.17M
57.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plainview | $805K | $854K | +6.0% | |
| North New Hyde Park | $822K | $911K | +10.8% | |
| Jericho | $823K | $912K | +10.7% | |
| Albertson | $827K | $891K | +7.7% | |
| Syosset | $824K | $880K | +6.9% | |
| Williston Park | $826K | $878K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plainview | $805K | $854K | +6.0% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plainview | $805K | $854K | $494K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Freeport | $451K | $472K | $215K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.