Staten Island, NY · ZIP 10304 · Census Tract 36085005000 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$663K
Downside (P10)
$541K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$745K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$983K
+48% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +48%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Staten Island markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $432K | $441K | $460K | $471K | $494K | $526K | $581K | $631K | $639K | $653K | $663K | $701K | $714K | $745K |
| YoY Change | +2.1% | +4.3% | +2.2% | +4.9% | +6.6% | +10.3% | +8.6% | +1.3% | +2.1% | +1.6% | +5.8% | +1.9% | +4.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $548K | $524K | $541K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $832K | $914K | $983K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$548K to $832K
40.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$541K to $983K
59.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stapleton · 10304 · (Tract 50) | $654K | $745K | +13.9% | |
| Great Kills | $663K | $731K | +10.3% | |
| Stapleton | $661K | $713K | +7.9% | |
| Bulls Head | $665K | $764K | +14.8% | |
| Rosebank | $660K | $664K | +0.6% | |
| West Brighton | $666K | $734K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stapleton · 10304 · (Tract 50) | $654K | $745K | +13.9% | |
| Mariners Harbor | $582K | $706K | +21.2% | |
| Rosebank | $686K | $828K | +20.6% | |
| New Dorp | $1.07M | $1.30M | +20.6% | |
| Annadale | $688K | $813K | +18.2% | |
| Mariners Harbor | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stapleton · 10304 · (Tract 50) | $654K | $745K | $442K | |
| Mariners Harbor | $298K | $350K | $200K | |
| Stapleton | $559K | $627K | $239K | |
| Bulls Head | $429K | $459K | $247K | |
| Mariners Harbor | $419K | $491K | $258K | |
| Port Richmond | $549K | $585K | $261K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.