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Staten Island, NY · ZIP 10305 · Census Tract 36085000800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$616K
Downside (P10)
$483K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$641K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$856K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $385K | $403K | $404K | $422K | $426K | $469K | $493K | $594K | $594K | $613K | $616K | $618K | $624K | $641K | $633K |
| YoY Change | +4.8% | +0.3% | +4.3% | +1.0% | +10.2% | +5.1% | +20.4% | -0.0% | +3.2% | +0.6% | +0.3% | +1.0% | +2.6% | -1.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $520K | $497K | $483K | $555K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $749K | $819K | $856K | $710K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$520K to $749K
37.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$555K to $710K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $621K | $641K | +3.2% | |
| New York (Tract 002001) | $622K | $677K | +8.9% | |
| New York (Tract 029102) | $609K | $641K | +5.3% | |
| New York (Tract 010500) | $616K | $644K | +4.7% | |
| New York (Tract 007001) | $625K | $654K | +4.7% | |
| New York (Tract 001100) | $616K | $626K | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $621K | $641K | +3.2% | |
| New York (Tract 031901) | $582K | $706K | +21.2% | |
| New York (Tract 007002) | $686K | $828K | +20.6% | |
| New York (Tract 027900) | $1.07M | $1.30M | +20.6% | |
| New York (Tract 017016) | $688K | $813K | +18.2% | |
| New York (Tract 032300) | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $621K | $641K | $373K | |
| New York (Tract 020701) | $549K | $585K | $261K | |
| New York (Tract 022300) | $419K | $491K | $258K | |
| New York (Tract 027702) | $429K | $459K | $247K | |
| New York (Tract 004002) | $559K | $627K | $239K | |
| New York (Tract 032300) | $298K | $350K | $200K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.