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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Staten Island, NY · ZIP 10309 · Census Tract 36085022602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$884K
Downside (P10)
$779K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$966K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.23M
+39% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $622K | $605K | $800K | $794K | $837K | $884K | $888K | $924K | $966K |
| YoY Change | -2.7% | +32.2% | -0.8% | +5.4% | +5.7% | +0.4% | +4.1% | +4.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $754K | $795K | $779K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $991K | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$754K to $991K
26.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$779K to $1.23M
46.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $860K | $966K | +12.4% | |
| New York (Tract 017300) | $856K | $995K | +16.2% | |
| New York (Tract 017702) | $895K | $1.00M | +12.1% | |
| New York (Tract 024402) | $874K | $944K | +8.0% | |
| New York (Tract 017009) | $863K | $895K | +3.6% | |
| New York (Tract 019800) | $884K | $909K | +2.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $860K | $966K | +12.4% | |
| New York (Tract 031901) | $582K | $706K | +21.2% | |
| New York (Tract 007002) | $686K | $828K | +20.6% | |
| New York (Tract 027900) | $1.07M | $1.30M | +20.6% | |
| New York (Tract 017016) | $688K | $813K | +18.2% | |
| New York (Tract 032300) | $298K | $350K | +17.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | $860K | $966K | $450K | |
| New York (Tract 020701) | $549K | $585K | $261K | |
| New York (Tract 022300) | $419K | $491K | $258K | |
| New York (Tract 027702) | $429K | $459K | $247K | |
| New York (Tract 004002) | $559K | $627K | $239K | |
| New York (Tract 032300) | $298K | $350K | $200K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.