Suffolk, NY · ZIP 11743 · Census Tract 36103110101 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.58M
Downside (P10)
$1.14M
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.56M
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.29M
+46% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +46%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Suffolk markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
| YoY Change | -5.1% | +2.2% | +6.7% | +5.0% | -10.1% | -1.3% | +7.8% | -3.1% | +5.1% | +2.8% | +0.1% | +0.9% | -1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.1M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.9M | $2.1M | $2.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.23M to $1.91M
42.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.14M to $2.29M
73.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | -0.7% | |
| Northwest Harbor | $1.56M | $1.63M | +4.6% | |
| Montauk | $1.60M | $1.84M | +15.0% | |
| East Hampton North | $1.52M | $1.63M | +7.0% | |
| Cold Spring Harbor | $1.64M | $1.83M | +12.0% | |
| Northwest Harbor | $1.65M | $1.91M | +15.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | -0.7% | |
| Islip | $511K | $609K | +19.1% | |
| Islip | $500K | $595K | +19.0% | |
| Shirley | $406K | $480K | +18.3% | |
| Ronkonkoma | $578K | $681K | +17.9% | |
| Port Jefferson Station | $553K | $651K | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Harbor | $1.58M | $1.56M | $1.15M | |
| Southampton | $230K | $252K | $100K | |
| Middle Island | $248K | $279K | $134K | |
| Rocky Point | $248K | $260K | $135K | |
| Coram | $291K | $309K | $135K | |
| Calverton | $224K | $238K | $140K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.