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Lorain, OH · ZIP 44039 · Census Tract 39093080500 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$332K
Downside (P10)
$283K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$381K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$501K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $189K | $197K | $201K | $217K | $224K | $231K | $241K | $281K | $302K | $320K | $332K | $339K | $364K | $381K |
| YoY Change | +4.4% | +1.9% | +8.2% | +3.4% | +3.0% | +4.5% | +16.3% | +7.7% | +6.0% | +3.5% | +2.3% | +7.1% | +4.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $288K | $287K | $283K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $419K | $450K | $501K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$288K to $419K
38.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$283K to $501K
57.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Ridgeville | $326K | $381K | +16.8% | |
| Henrietta | $319K | $361K | +13.2% | |
| North Ridgeville (Tract 080702) | $328K | $369K | +12.3% | |
| Avon Lake | $332K | $357K | +7.7% | |
| North Ridgeville (Tract 080701) | $307K | $306K | -0.1% | |
| Avon | $331K | $330K | -0.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Ridgeville | $326K | $381K | +16.8% | |
| Elyria (Tract 071201) | $129K | $154K | +19.4% | |
| Lorain (Tract 022100) | $138K | $163K | +18.4% | |
| Elyria (Tract 070400) | $126K | $150K | +18.3% | |
| Lorain (Tract 023500) | $125K | $145K | +16.5% | |
| Sheffield Lake | $147K | $171K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Ridgeville | $326K | $381K | $218K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023300) | $93K | $98K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023100) | $86K | $92K | $51K | |
| Lorain (Tract 023200) | $69K | $78K | $49K | |
| Sheffield area | $102K | $115K | $46K | |
| Lorain (Tract 097300) | $82K | $83K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.