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County 40414, OK · Census Tract 40414160004 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$500K
Downside (P10)
$412K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$600K
+20% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$872K
+74% by 2030
Base case: +20% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +74%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $500K | $580K | $585K | $596K | $600K |
| YoY Change | +16.0% | +0.8% | +2.0% | +0.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $461K | $410K | $416K | $412K | |
| Upside (P90) | $725K | $777K | $842K | $872K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$461K to $725K
45.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$412K to $872K
76.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160004 | $500K | $600K | +20.0% | |
| Tract 000009 | $410K | $602K | +46.8% | |
| Tract 360008 | $483K | $654K | +35.4% | |
| Tract 440009 | $541K | $707K | +30.7% | |
| Tract 240005 | $269K | $347K | +28.8% | |
| Tract 680005 | $744K | $941K | +26.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160004 | $500K | $600K | +20.0% | |
| Tract 000009 | $410K | $602K | +46.8% | |
| Tract 760006 | $57K | $81K | +43.0% | |
| Tract 360008 | $483K | $654K | +35.4% | |
| Tract 560002 | $58K | $78K | +34.1% | |
| Tract 440009 | $541K | $707K | +30.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160004 | $500K | $600K | $461K | |
| Tract 680005 | $744K | $941K | $665K | |
| Tract 440009 | $541K | $707K | $436K | |
| Tract 240005 | $269K | $347K | $322K | |
| Tract 560002 | $58K | $78K | $90K | |
| Tract 760006 | $57K | $81K | $85K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources