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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Wagoner, OK · ZIP 74014 · Census Tract 40145030408 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$207K
Downside (P10)
$172K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$222K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$268K
+29% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +29%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $135K | $145K | $168K | $173K | $199K | $207K | $204K | $211K | $222K |
| YoY Change | +7.0% | +16.2% | +2.8% | +15.3% | +3.9% | -1.4% | +3.4% | +4.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $170K | $184K | $172K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $237K | $251K | $268K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$170K to $237K
33.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$172K to $268K
43.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | +9.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030603) | $181K | $206K | +13.8% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 030502) | $221K | $246K | +11.3% | |
| Broken Arrow (Tract 030506) | $237K | $257K | +8.3% | |
| South Wagoner | $195K | $207K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | +9.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030604) | $173K | $210K | +21.6% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030509) | $320K | $377K | +17.9% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030605) | $214K | $248K | +15.9% | |
| Wagoner | $155K | $179K | +15.5% | |
| Coweta (Tract 030601) | $326K | $376K | +15.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coweta | $202K | $222K | $96K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030102) | $155K | $179K | $96K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030202) | $151K | $158K | $92K | |
| Wagoner (Tract 030101) | $129K | $143K | $77K | |
| Tulsa | $118K | $135K | $70K | |
| Broken Arrow | $119K | $123K | $59K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.