Loading forecast data...
Ready to see your forecast?
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Loading forecast data...
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Marion, OR · ZIP 97317 · Census Tract 41047002701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$621K
Downside (P10)
$523K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$631K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$860K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $409K | $456K | $530K | $591K | $606K | $621K | $622K | $636K | $631K |
| YoY Change | +11.3% | +16.3% | +11.6% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +0.2% | +2.2% | -0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $554K | $528K | $523K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $768K | $812K | $860K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$554K to $768K
34.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$523K to $860K
53.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97317 · (Tract 27.1) | $610K | $631K | +3.4% | |
| Salem (Tract 002400) | $631K | $728K | +15.4% | |
| Salem (Tract 002600) | $617K | $673K | +9.1% | |
| Silverton | $654K | $687K | +5.0% | |
| Jefferson | $565K | $586K | +3.7% | |
| Salem (Tract 002702) | $654K | $673K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97317 · (Tract 27.1) | $610K | $631K | +3.4% | |
| Woodburn | $369K | $454K | +23.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 001607) | $337K | $404K | +20.0% | |
| Stayton | $413K | $483K | +17.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 002400) | $631K | $728K | +15.4% | |
| Salem (Tract 001701) | $358K | $408K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97317 · (Tract 27.1) | $610K | $631K | $337K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010307) | $303K | $341K | $178K | |
| Salem (Tract 001702) | $341K | $366K | $176K | |
| Salem (Tract 001605) | $282K | $298K | $159K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010308) | $321K | $353K | $140K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $69K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.