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Marion, OR · ZIP 97383 · Census Tract 41047010701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$418K
Downside (P10)
$377K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$483K
+16% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$560K
+34% by 2030
Base case: +16% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +34%. The model forecasts this with 79% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $190K | $198K | $214K | $224K | $239K | $278K | $316K | $379K | $400K | $414K | $418K | $435K | $451K | $483K |
| YoY Change | +3.9% | +8.6% | +4.4% | +6.8% | +16.3% | +13.9% | +19.7% | +5.5% | +3.6% | +1.0% | +4.0% | +3.6% | +7.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $388K | $382K | $377K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $523K | $562K | $560K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$388K to $523K
31.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$377K to $560K
37.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stayton | $413K | $483K | +17.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 001603) | $403K | $457K | +13.4% | |
| Salem (Tract 001502) | $425K | $473K | +11.2% | |
| Salem (Tract 002502) | $433K | $480K | +10.8% | |
| Salem (Tract 000200) | $426K | $450K | +5.7% | |
| Salem (Tract 002303) | $429K | $450K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stayton | $413K | $483K | +17.0% | |
| Woodburn | $369K | $454K | +23.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 001607) | $337K | $404K | +20.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 002400) | $631K | $728K | +15.4% | |
| Salem (Tract 001701) | $358K | $408K | +13.9% | |
| Salem (Tract 002201) | $394K | $448K | +13.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stayton | $413K | $483K | $183K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010307) | $303K | $341K | $178K | |
| Salem (Tract 001702) | $341K | $366K | $176K | |
| Salem (Tract 001605) | $282K | $298K | $159K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010308) | $321K | $353K | $140K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $69K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.