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Dauphin, PA · ZIP 17111 · Census Tract 42043023000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$225K
Downside (P10)
$202K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$245K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$336K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $146K | $147K | $150K | $154K | $155K | $164K | $169K | $186K | $208K | $217K | $225K | $231K | $241K | $245K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,305 | -$78,305 | -$75,005 | -$71,405 | -$69,905 | -$61,405 | -$56,605 | -$39,505 | -$17,505 | -$8,505 | +$6,049 | +$15,675 | +$19,797 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.2% | -34.8% | -33.3% | -31.7% | -31.0% | -27.3% | -25.1% | -17.5% | -7.8% | -3.8% | +2.7% | +7.0% | +8.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $206K | $206K | $202K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $273K | $294K | $336K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$206K to $273K
29.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$202K to $336K
54.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swatara | $222K | $245K | +10.4% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022606) | $227K | $259K | +14.1% | |
| Lower Swatara | $227K | $255K | +12.3% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022300) | $226K | $244K | +7.8% | |
| Lawnton | $219K | $236K | +7.8% | |
| Londonderry | $229K | $242K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swatara | $222K | $245K | +10.4% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022605) | $281K | $342K | +21.6% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021100) | $104K | $121K | +16.2% | |
| Millersburg | $137K | $159K | +16.2% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022606) | $227K | $259K | +14.1% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 020500) | $216K | $247K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swatara | $222K | $245K | $134K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021700) | $119K | $128K | $59K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021500) | $95K | $107K | $51K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021200) | $97K | $102K | $51K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021100) | $104K | $121K | $50K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 025500) | $89K | $96K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Dauphin, PA · ZIP 17111 · Census Tract 42043023000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$225K
Downside (P10)
$202K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$245K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$336K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $146K | $147K | $150K | $154K | $155K | $164K | $169K | $186K | $208K | $217K | $225K | $231K | $241K | $245K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,305 | -$78,305 | -$75,005 | -$71,405 | -$69,905 | -$61,405 | -$56,605 | -$39,505 | -$17,505 | -$8,505 | +$6,049 | +$15,675 | +$19,797 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.2% | -34.8% | -33.3% | -31.7% | -31.0% | -27.3% | -25.1% | -17.5% | -7.8% | -3.8% | +2.7% | +7.0% | +8.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $206K | $206K | $202K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $273K | $294K | $336K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$206K to $273K
29.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$202K to $336K
54.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swatara | $222K | $245K | +10.4% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022606) | $227K | $259K | +14.1% | |
| Lower Swatara | $227K | $255K | +12.3% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022300) | $226K | $244K | +7.8% | |
| Lawnton | $219K | $236K | +7.8% | |
| Londonderry | $229K | $242K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swatara | $222K | $245K | +10.4% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022605) | $281K | $342K | +21.6% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021100) | $104K | $121K | +16.2% | |
| Millersburg | $137K | $159K | +16.2% | |
| Lower Paxton (Tract 022606) | $227K | $259K | +14.1% | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 020500) | $216K | $247K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swatara | $222K | $245K | $134K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021700) | $119K | $128K | $59K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021500) | $95K | $107K | $51K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021200) | $97K | $102K | $51K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 021100) | $104K | $121K | $50K | |
| Harrisburg (Tract 025500) | $89K | $96K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
