Loading forecast data...
Ready to see your forecast?
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Loading forecast data...
Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Erie, PA · ZIP 16503 · Census Tract 42049001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$77K
Downside (P10)
$68K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$83K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$126K
+64% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 61% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $44K | $47K | $45K | $44K | $42K | $43K | $47K | $47K | $50K | $74K | $77K | $77K | $79K | $83K |
| YoY Change | +7.1% | -4.3% | -2.9% | -3.2% | +0.7% | +10.8% | +0.2% | +4.9% | +48.4% | +4.6% | +0.1% | +2.4% | +5.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $67K | $70K | $68K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $92K | $102K | $126K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$67K to $92K
32.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$68K to $126K
70.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie · 16503 · (Tract 15) | $75K | $83K | +10.4% | |
| Erie (Tract 001300) | $84K | $93K | +11.0% | |
| Erie (Tract 001000) | $86K | $95K | +9.9% | |
| Erie (Tract 002500) | $87K | $95K | +9.8% | |
| Erie (Tract 001700) | $86K | $92K | +7.4% | |
| Erie (Tract 001200) | $72K | $76K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie · 16503 · (Tract 15) | $75K | $83K | +10.4% | |
| Erie (Tract 002600) | $110K | $129K | +17.3% | |
| Erie (Tract 000600) | $119K | $139K | +17.1% | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | +15.2% | |
| Lawrence Park | $143K | $164K | +14.8% | |
| Wayne area | $154K | $176K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie · 16503 · (Tract 15) | $75K | $83K | $59K | |
| Erie (Tract 000500) | $60K | $64K | $33K | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 000400) | $60K | $65K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 001800) | $50K | $52K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.