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Erie, PA · ZIP 16511 · Census Tract 42049011503 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$206K
Downside (P10)
$182K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$221K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$296K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $150K | $148K | $149K | $157K | $161K | $168K | $179K | $214K | $213K | $203K | $206K | $217K | $221K | $221K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$56,434 | -$58,834 | -$57,034 | -$49,834 | -$45,234 | -$38,234 | -$27,034 | +$8,066 | +$6,966 | -$3,834 | +$10,921 | +$14,898 | +$14,924 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.4% | -28.5% | -27.6% | -24.2% | -21.9% | -18.5% | -13.1% | +3.9% | +3.4% | -1.9% | +5.3% | +7.2% | +7.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $183K | $185K | $182K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $250K | $277K | $296K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$183K to $250K
30.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$182K to $296K
51.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Harborcreek | $207K | $221K | +6.9% | |
| Waterford area | $201K | $219K | +9.4% | |
| Erie | $209K | $228K | +9.1% | |
| Girard | $203K | $221K | +8.9% | |
| Millcreek | $202K | $220K | +8.8% | |
| Near Millcreek | $202K | $218K | +8.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Harborcreek | $207K | $221K | +6.9% | |
| Erie (Tract 002600) | $110K | $129K | +17.3% | |
| Erie (Tract 000600) | $119K | $139K | +17.1% | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | +15.2% | |
| Lawrence Park | $143K | $164K | +14.8% | |
| Wayne area | $154K | $176K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Harborcreek | $207K | $221K | $113K | |
| Erie (Tract 000500) | $60K | $64K | $33K | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 000400) | $60K | $65K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 001800) | $50K | $52K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Erie, PA · ZIP 16511 · Census Tract 42049011503 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$206K
Downside (P10)
$182K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$221K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$296K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $150K | $148K | $149K | $157K | $161K | $168K | $179K | $214K | $213K | $203K | $206K | $217K | $221K | $221K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$56,434 | -$58,834 | -$57,034 | -$49,834 | -$45,234 | -$38,234 | -$27,034 | +$8,066 | +$6,966 | -$3,834 | +$10,921 | +$14,898 | +$14,924 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.4% | -28.5% | -27.6% | -24.2% | -21.9% | -18.5% | -13.1% | +3.9% | +3.4% | -1.9% | +5.3% | +7.2% | +7.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $183K | $185K | $182K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $250K | $277K | $296K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$183K to $250K
30.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$182K to $296K
51.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Harborcreek | $207K | $221K | +6.9% | |
| Waterford area | $201K | $219K | +9.4% | |
| Erie | $209K | $228K | +9.1% | |
| Girard | $203K | $221K | +8.9% | |
| Millcreek | $202K | $220K | +8.8% | |
| Near Millcreek | $202K | $218K | +8.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Harborcreek | $207K | $221K | +6.9% | |
| Erie (Tract 002600) | $110K | $129K | +17.3% | |
| Erie (Tract 000600) | $119K | $139K | +17.1% | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | +15.2% | |
| Lawrence Park | $143K | $164K | +14.8% | |
| Wayne area | $154K | $176K | +14.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwest Harborcreek | $207K | $221K | $113K | |
| Erie (Tract 000500) | $60K | $64K | $33K | |
| Erie (Tract 001400) | $53K | $61K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 000400) | $60K | $65K | $32K | |
| Erie (Tract 001800) | $50K | $52K | $24K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
