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Lackawanna, PA · ZIP 18403 · Census Tract 42069111100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$221K
Downside (P10)
$158K
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$219K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$282K
+28% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $140K | $146K | $154K | $175K | $171K | $175K | $206K | $211K | $217K | $221K | $222K | $222K | $219K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$77,577 | -$80,777 | -$74,877 | -$66,477 | -$45,877 | -$49,877 | -$45,277 | -$14,177 | -$9,177 | -$3,577 | +$1,466 | +$1,119 | -$1,816 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.2% | -36.6% | -33.9% | -30.1% | -20.8% | -22.6% | -20.5% | -6.4% | -4.2% | -1.6% | +0.7% | +0.5% | -0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $185K | $175K | $158K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $265K | $274K | $282K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$185K to $265K
35.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$158K to $282K
56.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archbald | $219K | $219K | +0.1% | |
| Scranton (Tract 102800) | $223K | $248K | +10.9% | |
| Dunmore | $231K | $254K | +10.2% | |
| Scranton (Tract 101800) | $208K | $228K | +9.6% | |
| Scranton (Tract 101000) | $215K | $231K | +7.4% | |
| Clifton area | $222K | $224K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archbald | $219K | $219K | +0.1% | |
| Scranton (Tract 102500) | $123K | $145K | +17.8% | |
| Scott | $253K | $291K | +15.0% | |
| Scranton (Tract 101700) | $172K | $197K | +15.0% | |
| Dickson City | $204K | $235K | +14.7% | |
| Scranton (Tract 102000) | $128K | $145K | +13.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archbald | $219K | $219K | $124K | |
| Scranton (Tract 101300) | $141K | $153K | $67K | |
| Scranton (Tract 101200) | $131K | $140K | $66K | |
| Scranton (Tract 102100) | $125K | $134K | $65K | |
| Scranton (Tract 101900) | $126K | $134K | $57K | |
| Scranton (Tract 102600) | $92K | $98K | $54K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lackawanna, PA · ZIP 18403 · Census Tract 42069111100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$221K
Downside (P10)
$158K
-28% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$219K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$282K
+28% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -28% to +28%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $140K | $146K | $154K | $175K | $171K | $175K | $206K | $211K | $217K | $221K | $222K | $222K | $219K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$77,577 | -$80,777 | -$74,877 | -$66,477 | -$45,877 | -$49,877 | -$45,277 | -$14,177 | -$9,177 | -$3,577 | +$1,466 | +$1,119 | -$1,816 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -35.2% | -36.6% | -33.9% | -30.1% | -20.8% | -22.6% | -20.5% | -6.4% | -4.2% | -1.6% | +0.7% | +0.5% | -0.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $185K | $175K | $158K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $265K | $274K | $282K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$185K to $265K
35.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$158K to $282K
56.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archbald | $219K | $219K | +0.1% | |
| Scranton (Tract 102800) | $223K | $248K | +10.9% | |
| Dunmore | $231K | $254K | +10.2% | |
| Scranton (Tract 101800) | $208K | $228K | +9.6% | |
| Scranton (Tract 101000) | $215K | $231K | +7.4% | |
| Clifton area | $222K | $224K | +1.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archbald | $219K | $219K | +0.1% | |
| Scranton (Tract 102500) | $123K | $145K | +17.8% | |
| Scott | $253K | $291K | +15.0% | |
| Scranton (Tract 101700) | $172K | $197K | +15.0% | |
| Dickson City | $204K | $235K | +14.7% | |
| Scranton (Tract 102000) | $128K | $145K | +13.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archbald | $219K | $219K | $124K | |
| Scranton (Tract 101300) | $141K | $153K | $67K | |
| Scranton (Tract 101200) | $131K | $140K | $66K | |
| Scranton (Tract 102100) | $125K | $134K | $65K | |
| Scranton (Tract 101900) | $126K | $134K | $57K | |
| Scranton (Tract 102600) | $92K | $98K | $54K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
