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Lebanon, PA · ZIP 17042 · Census Tract 42075003400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$227K
Downside (P10)
$193K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$236K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$294K
+29% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +29%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $138K | $139K | $145K | $147K | $152K | $152K | $159K | $190K | $199K | $217K | $227K | $228K | $234K | $236K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$89,707 | -$88,807 | -$82,707 | -$80,107 | -$75,507 | -$75,507 | -$68,207 | -$37,707 | -$28,007 | -$10,607 | +$954 | +$6,660 | +$8,479 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.5% | -39.1% | -36.4% | -35.2% | -33.2% | -33.2% | -30.0% | -16.6% | -12.3% | -4.7% | +0.4% | +2.9% | +3.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $193K | $194K | $193K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $283K | $296K | $294K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$193K to $283K
39.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$193K to $294K
42.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lebanon | $220K | $236K | +7.3% | |
| Lebanon | $213K | $234K | +10.0% | |
| Jackson | $234K | $257K | +9.7% | |
| Swatara | $251K | $265K | +5.7% | |
| North Lebanon (Tract 002702) | $205K | $207K | +1.4% | |
| North Lebanon (Tract 002701) | $247K | $248K | +0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lebanon | $220K | $236K | +7.3% | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000100) | $158K | $185K | +17.7% | |
| Avon | $193K | $227K | +17.2% | |
| Myerstown | $189K | $214K | +13.5% | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000402) | $156K | $177K | +13.2% | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000300) | $138K | $156K | +12.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lebanon | $220K | $236K | $101K | |
| Cleona | $179K | $198K | $115K | |
| Annville | $200K | $222K | $102K | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000402) | $156K | $177K | $95K | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000401) | $142K | $158K | $84K | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000300) | $138K | $156K | $61K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Lebanon, PA · ZIP 17042 · Census Tract 42075003400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$227K
Downside (P10)
$193K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$236K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$294K
+29% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +29%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $138K | $139K | $145K | $147K | $152K | $152K | $159K | $190K | $199K | $217K | $227K | $228K | $234K | $236K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$89,707 | -$88,807 | -$82,707 | -$80,107 | -$75,507 | -$75,507 | -$68,207 | -$37,707 | -$28,007 | -$10,607 | +$954 | +$6,660 | +$8,479 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.5% | -39.1% | -36.4% | -35.2% | -33.2% | -33.2% | -30.0% | -16.6% | -12.3% | -4.7% | +0.4% | +2.9% | +3.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $193K | $194K | $193K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $283K | $296K | $294K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$193K to $283K
39.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$193K to $294K
42.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lebanon | $220K | $236K | +7.3% | |
| Lebanon | $213K | $234K | +10.0% | |
| Jackson | $234K | $257K | +9.7% | |
| Swatara | $251K | $265K | +5.7% | |
| North Lebanon (Tract 002702) | $205K | $207K | +1.4% | |
| North Lebanon (Tract 002701) | $247K | $248K | +0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lebanon | $220K | $236K | +7.3% | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000100) | $158K | $185K | +17.7% | |
| Avon | $193K | $227K | +17.2% | |
| Myerstown | $189K | $214K | +13.5% | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000402) | $156K | $177K | +13.2% | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000300) | $138K | $156K | +12.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Lebanon | $220K | $236K | $101K | |
| Cleona | $179K | $198K | $115K | |
| Annville | $200K | $222K | $102K | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000402) | $156K | $177K | $95K | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000401) | $142K | $158K | $84K | |
| Lebanon (Tract 000300) | $138K | $156K | $61K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
