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Philadelphia, PA · ZIP 19140 · Census Tract 42101020300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$126K
Downside (P10)
$100K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$140K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$181K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $54K | $54K | $53K | $57K | $58K | $65K | $74K | $82K | $119K | $126K | $129K | $132K | $140K |
| YoY Change | +0.0% | -1.1% | +6.7% | +2.1% | +12.4% | +12.4% | +11.0% | +46.3% | +5.7% | +2.2% | +2.7% | +5.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $105K | $102K | $100K | ||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $151K | $166K | $181K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$105K to $151K
35.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$100K to $181K
58.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan · 19140 · (Tract 203) | $121K | $140K | +15.4% | |
| Kingsessing (Tract 008101) | $125K | $139K | +11.0% | |
| Frankford | $124K | $136K | +9.3% | |
| Logan | $126K | $137K | +9.0% | |
| Kingsessing (Tract 007101) | $127K | $132K | +3.5% | |
| Overbrook Park | $126K | $127K | +1.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan · 19140 · (Tract 203) | $121K | $140K | +15.4% | |
| West Germantown | $225K | $282K | +25.3% | |
| Center City | $374K | $452K | +21.0% | |
| Southwest | $122K | $147K | +20.0% | |
| Spring Garden | $801K | $958K | +19.6% | |
| Kingsessing | $333K | $396K | +19.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan · 19140 · (Tract 203) | $121K | $140K | $81K | |
| Frankford | $80K | $83K | $42K | |
| Logan | $71K | $76K | $40K | |
| Port Richmond | $59K | $67K | $40K | |
| Strawberry Mansion (Tract 017300) | $68K | $74K | $35K | |
| Strawberry Mansion (Tract 016901) | $64K | $66K | $29K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.