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Philadelphia, PA · ZIP 19128 · Census Tract 42101021600 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$453K
Downside (P10)
$383K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$482K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$683K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $268K | $267K | $270K | $281K | $279K | $281K | $289K | $351K | $377K | $416K | $453K | $461K | $468K | $482K | $433K |
| YoY Change | -0.5% | +1.0% | +4.3% | -1.0% | +0.9% | +2.9% | +21.5% | +7.2% | +10.3% | +8.9% | +1.8% | +1.6% | +2.8% | -10.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $384K | $388K | $383K | $382K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $577K | $611K | $683K | $487K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$384K to $577K
41.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$382K to $487K
24.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | $433K | $482K | +11.3% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 002200) | $460K | $543K | +18.1% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 002900) | $461K | $532K | +15.3% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 024100) | $451K | $486K | +7.6% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 025600) | $450K | $484K | +7.5% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 037600) | $451K | $482K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | $433K | $482K | +11.3% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 025200) | $225K | $282K | +25.3% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 000806) | $374K | $452K | +21.0% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 006700) | $122K | $147K | +20.0% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 036700) | $801K | $958K | +19.6% | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 007300) | $333K | $396K | +19.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia | $433K | $482K | $300K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 029300) | $80K | $83K | $42K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 019900) | $71K | $76K | $40K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 017701) | $59K | $67K | $40K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 017300) | $68K | $74K | $35K | |
| Philadelphia (Tract 016901) | $64K | $66K | $29K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.