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York, PA · ZIP 17406 · Census Tract 42133023601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$219K
Downside (P10)
$183K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$231K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$315K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $151K | $157K | $158K | $159K | $163K | $175K | $176K | $193K | $212K | $211K | $219K | $223K | $230K | $231K | $220K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$67,961 | -$61,361 | -$61,061 | -$60,161 | -$56,261 | -$43,661 | -$42,961 | -$25,461 | -$6,361 | -$7,361 | +$4,382 | +$11,549 | +$12,176 | +$1,448 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.1% | -28.0% | -27.9% | -27.5% | -25.7% | -20.0% | -19.6% | -11.6% | -2.9% | -3.4% | +2.0% | +5.3% | +5.6% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $193K | $187K | $183K | $194K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $270K | $298K | $315K | $251K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$193K to $270K
34.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$194K to $251K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Windsor | $215K | $231K | +7.2% | |
| Hellam (Tract 023500) | $215K | $244K | +13.4% | |
| Hellam (Tract 023400) | $217K | $237K | +9.2% | |
| West Manchester (Tract 021600) | $220K | $238K | +7.9% | |
| West Manchester (Tract 021500) | $220K | $238K | +7.8% | |
| Spring Garden | $216K | $232K | +7.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Windsor | $215K | $231K | +7.2% | |
| York | $85K | $104K | +22.1% | |
| Jackson | $233K | $276K | +18.8% | |
| Shrewsbury | $330K | $386K | +16.8% | |
| Manheim | $352K | $409K | +16.3% | |
| Springfield | $336K | $386K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Windsor | $215K | $231K | $132K | |
| York (Tract 001100) | $82K | $87K | $62K | |
| York (Tract 001600) | $109K | $113K | $58K | |
| York (Tract 000200) | $97K | $103K | $58K | |
| York (Tract 000300) | $85K | $104K | $55K | |
| York (Tract 000700) | $82K | $92K | $26K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
York, PA · ZIP 17406 · Census Tract 42133023601 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$219K
Downside (P10)
$183K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$231K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$315K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $151K | $157K | $158K | $159K | $163K | $175K | $176K | $193K | $212K | $211K | $219K | $223K | $230K | $231K | $220K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$67,961 | -$61,361 | -$61,061 | -$60,161 | -$56,261 | -$43,661 | -$42,961 | -$25,461 | -$6,361 | -$7,361 | +$4,382 | +$11,549 | +$12,176 | +$1,448 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -31.1% | -28.0% | -27.9% | -27.5% | -25.7% | -20.0% | -19.6% | -11.6% | -2.9% | -3.4% | +2.0% | +5.3% | +5.6% | +0.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $193K | $187K | $183K | $194K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $270K | $298K | $315K | $251K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$193K to $270K
34.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$194K to $251K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Windsor | $215K | $231K | +7.2% | |
| Hellam (Tract 023500) | $215K | $244K | +13.4% | |
| Hellam (Tract 023400) | $217K | $237K | +9.2% | |
| West Manchester (Tract 021600) | $220K | $238K | +7.9% | |
| West Manchester (Tract 021500) | $220K | $238K | +7.8% | |
| Spring Garden | $216K | $232K | +7.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Windsor | $215K | $231K | +7.2% | |
| York | $85K | $104K | +22.1% | |
| Jackson | $233K | $276K | +18.8% | |
| Shrewsbury | $330K | $386K | +16.8% | |
| Manheim | $352K | $409K | +16.3% | |
| Springfield | $336K | $386K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Windsor | $215K | $231K | $132K | |
| York (Tract 001100) | $82K | $87K | $62K | |
| York (Tract 001600) | $109K | $113K | $58K | |
| York (Tract 000200) | $97K | $103K | $58K | |
| York (Tract 000300) | $85K | $104K | $55K | |
| York (Tract 000700) | $82K | $92K | $26K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
