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Darlington, SC · ZIP 29161 · Census Tract 45031011500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$184K
Downside (P10)
$146K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$198K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$254K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $65K | $66K | $70K | $79K | $120K | $152K | $153K | $162K | $176K | $184K | $185K | $195K | $198K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$95,448 | -$118,748 | -$118,548 | -$114,348 | -$105,048 | -$63,648 | -$32,148 | -$31,248 | -$22,048 | -$7,848 | +$928 | +$10,487 | +$13,671 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.9% | -64.5% | -64.4% | -62.1% | -57.1% | -34.6% | -17.5% | -17.0% | -12.0% | -4.3% | +0.5% | +5.7% | +7.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $149K | $149K | $146K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $222K | $238K | $254K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$149K to $222K
39.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$146K to $254K
54.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Swamp | $179K | $198K | +10.5% | |
| Hartsville | $171K | $197K | +15.5% | |
| Darlington (Tract 010901) | $201K | $224K | +11.5% | |
| North Hartsville | $174K | $191K | +10.0% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011000) | $173K | $188K | +8.7% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011100) | $156K | $166K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Swamp | $179K | $198K | +10.5% | |
| Hartsville (Tract 010800) | $171K | $197K | +15.5% | |
| Darlington (Tract 010901) | $201K | $224K | +11.5% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011301) | $124K | $138K | +11.0% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011400) | $81K | $89K | +10.6% | |
| Hartsville (Tract 010600) | $97K | $107K | +10.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Swamp | $179K | $198K | $108K | |
| Darlington (Tract 010902) | $74K | $77K | $57K | |
| Darlington (Tract 011201) | $86K | $93K | $56K | |
| Darlington (Tract 011400) | $81K | $89K | $51K | |
| Hartsville | $80K | $80K | $50K | |
| Darlington (Tract 011202) | $84K | $89K | $39K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Darlington, SC · ZIP 29161 · Census Tract 45031011500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$184K
Downside (P10)
$146K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$198K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$254K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $65K | $66K | $70K | $79K | $120K | $152K | $153K | $162K | $176K | $184K | $185K | $195K | $198K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$95,448 | -$118,748 | -$118,548 | -$114,348 | -$105,048 | -$63,648 | -$32,148 | -$31,248 | -$22,048 | -$7,848 | +$928 | +$10,487 | +$13,671 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.9% | -64.5% | -64.4% | -62.1% | -57.1% | -34.6% | -17.5% | -17.0% | -12.0% | -4.3% | +0.5% | +5.7% | +7.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $149K | $149K | $146K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $222K | $238K | $254K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$149K to $222K
39.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$146K to $254K
54.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Swamp | $179K | $198K | +10.5% | |
| Hartsville | $171K | $197K | +15.5% | |
| Darlington (Tract 010901) | $201K | $224K | +11.5% | |
| North Hartsville | $174K | $191K | +10.0% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011000) | $173K | $188K | +8.7% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011100) | $156K | $166K | +6.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Swamp | $179K | $198K | +10.5% | |
| Hartsville (Tract 010800) | $171K | $197K | +15.5% | |
| Darlington (Tract 010901) | $201K | $224K | +11.5% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011301) | $124K | $138K | +11.0% | |
| Darlington (Tract 011400) | $81K | $89K | +10.6% | |
| Hartsville (Tract 010600) | $97K | $107K | +10.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Swamp | $179K | $198K | $108K | |
| Darlington (Tract 010902) | $74K | $77K | $57K | |
| Darlington (Tract 011201) | $86K | $93K | $56K | |
| Darlington (Tract 011400) | $81K | $89K | $51K | |
| Hartsville | $80K | $80K | $50K | |
| Darlington (Tract 011202) | $84K | $89K | $39K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
