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Sumter, SC · ZIP 29153 · Census Tract 45085000401 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$180K
Downside (P10)
$147K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$195K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$291K
+62% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +62%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $145K | $148K | $153K | $172K | $176K | $180K | $185K | $191K | $195K |
| YoY Change | +2.2% | +2.8% | +12.9% | +2.0% | +2.5% | +3.1% | +2.9% | +2.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $156K | $148K | $147K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $235K | $262K | $291K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$156K to $235K
42.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$147K to $291K
73.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter North | $179K | $195K | +9.3% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000202) | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000300) | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Sumter | $179K | $198K | +10.5% | |
| Sumter Northeast | $200K | $213K | +6.2% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000201) | $179K | $189K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter North | $179K | $195K | +9.3% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000202) | $188K | $216K | +14.8% | |
| Shaw AFB-Horatio (Tract 000300) | $199K | $227K | +13.9% | |
| Privateer | $205K | $229K | +11.9% | |
| Sumter | $129K | $144K | +11.3% | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | +11.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumter North | $179K | $195K | $144K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001100) | $77K | $80K | $50K | |
| Sumter (Tract 000800) | $95K | $99K | $45K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001500) | $83K | $90K | $43K | |
| Sumter (Tract 001600) | $65K | $70K | $42K | |
| Sumter Southwest | $71K | $79K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.