County 46610, SD · Census Tract 46610000881 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.92M
Downside (P10)
$846K
-56% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.49M
-22% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.21M
+15% by 2030
Base case: -22% by 2030, with a forecast range from -56% to +15%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 46610 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.7M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
| YoY Change | +0.1% | -11.8% | -9.6% | -2.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.2M | $1.1M | $892K | $846K | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.4M | $2.2M | $2.1M | $2.2M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.42M to $2.24M
43.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$846K to $2.21M
91.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001327 | $1.92M | $1.53M | -20.1% |
| Tract 000904 | $1.91M | $1.33M | -30.4% |
| Tract 000629 | $1.95M | $1.39M | -28.6% |
| Tract 001026 | $1.98M | $1.45M | -27.0% |
| Tract 000603 | $2.02M | $1.44M | -28.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001343 | $1.72M | $1.40M | -18.8% |
| Tract 001327 | $1.92M | $1.53M | -20.1% |
| Tract 000441 | $1.78M | $1.37M | -23.0% |
| Tract 000742 | $2.14M | $1.61M | -24.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001343 | $1.72M | $1.40M | $978K |
| Tract 000603 | $2.02M | $1.44M | $1.09M |
| Tract 000441 | $1.78M | $1.37M | $1.10M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources