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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Memphis, TN · ZIP 38109 · Census Tract 47157022322 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$113K
Downside (P10)
$96K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$134K
+18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$170K
+50% by 2030
Base case: +18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +50%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $78K | $78K | $77K | $79K | $80K | $81K | $82K | $91K | $97K | $112K | $113K | $118K | $127K | $134K |
| YoY Change | -0.3% | -0.8% | +1.8% | +1.4% | +1.3% | +1.4% | +11.0% | +7.3% | +14.9% | +1.3% | +3.8% | +8.5% | +5.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $98K | $99K | $96K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $140K | $159K | $170K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$98K to $140K
35.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$96K to $170K
55.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38109 · (Tract 223.22) | $112K | $134K | +19.2% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010630) | $109K | $119K | +9.2% | |
| Memphis (Tract 021725) | $114K | $125K | +8.9% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010300) | $113K | $121K | +6.6% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010122) | $113K | $120K | +6.4% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022500) | $113K | $118K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38109 · (Tract 223.22) | $112K | $134K | +19.2% | |
| 1 area | $157K | $187K | +19.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022122) | $121K | $144K | +19.0% | |
| Memphis (Tract 022121) | $179K | $212K | +18.5% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007810) | $77K | $91K | +17.4% | |
| Memphis (Tract 021139) | $430K | $502K | +16.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis · 38109 · (Tract 223.22) | $112K | $134K | $74K | |
| Memphis (Tract 011100) | $61K | $63K | $29K | |
| Memphis (Tract 009902) | $59K | $60K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.