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Memphis, TN · ZIP 38117 · Census Tract 47157008500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$653K
Downside (P10)
$501K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$692K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$914K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $394K | $394K | $419K | $447K | $467K | $465K | $490K | $521K | $611K | $643K | $653K | $644K | $672K | $692K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$258,592 | -$258,992 | -$234,092 | -$205,492 | -$185,992 | -$187,992 | -$163,392 | -$131,592 | -$41,692 | -$10,392 | -$8,786 | +$19,226 | +$39,291 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -39.7% | -35.9% | -31.5% | -28.5% | -28.8% | -25.0% | -20.2% | -6.4% | -1.6% | -1.3% | +2.9% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $537K | $525K | $501K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $839K | $897K | $914K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$537K to $839K
46.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$501K to $914K
59.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $658K | $692K | +5.2% | |
| Bartlett | $460K | $512K | +11.3% | |
| Lakeland | $477K | $524K | +9.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007100) | $662K | $717K | +8.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 002900) | $470K | $498K | +6.0% | |
| Memphis (Tract 009600) | $536K | $563K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $658K | $692K | +5.2% | |
| 1 area | $157K | $187K | +19.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007810) | $77K | $91K | +17.4% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007200) | $303K | $351K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 020523) | $103K | $119K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010002) | $96K | $112K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $658K | $692K | $413K | |
| Memphis (Tract 011100) | $61K | $63K | $29K | |
| Memphis (Tract 009902) | $59K | $60K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Memphis, TN · ZIP 38117 · Census Tract 47157008500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$653K
Downside (P10)
$501K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$692K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$914K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $394K | $394K | $419K | $447K | $467K | $465K | $490K | $521K | $611K | $643K | $653K | $644K | $672K | $692K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$258,592 | -$258,992 | -$234,092 | -$205,492 | -$185,992 | -$187,992 | -$163,392 | -$131,592 | -$41,692 | -$10,392 | -$8,786 | +$19,226 | +$39,291 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -39.7% | -35.9% | -31.5% | -28.5% | -28.8% | -25.0% | -20.2% | -6.4% | -1.6% | -1.3% | +2.9% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $537K | $525K | $501K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $839K | $897K | $914K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$537K to $839K
46.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$501K to $914K
59.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $658K | $692K | +5.2% | |
| Bartlett | $460K | $512K | +11.3% | |
| Lakeland | $477K | $524K | +9.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007100) | $662K | $717K | +8.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 002900) | $470K | $498K | +6.0% | |
| Memphis (Tract 009600) | $536K | $563K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $658K | $692K | +5.2% | |
| 1 area | $157K | $187K | +19.3% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007810) | $77K | $91K | +17.4% | |
| Memphis (Tract 007200) | $303K | $351K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 020523) | $103K | $119K | +15.8% | |
| Memphis (Tract 010002) | $96K | $112K | +15.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | $658K | $692K | $413K | |
| Memphis (Tract 011100) | $61K | $63K | $29K | |
| Memphis (Tract 009902) | $59K | $60K | $25K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
