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Austin, TX · ZIP 78704 · Census Tract 48453002004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$390K
Downside (P10)
$320K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$417K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$554K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $271K | $283K | $290K | $334K | $349K | $416K | $380K | $421K | $395K | $386K | $390K | $403K | $420K | $417K | $399K |
| YoY Change | +4.4% | +2.5% | +15.2% | +4.4% | +19.4% | -8.8% | +10.9% | -6.2% | -2.3% | +1.2% | +3.3% | +4.2% | -0.7% | -4.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $336K | $324K | $320K | $349K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $477K | $517K | $554K | $459K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$336K to $477K
35.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$349K to $459K
27.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Heights · 78704 · (Tract 20.4) | $392K | $417K | +6.4% | |
| Pflugerville (Tract 046200) | $388K | $450K | +16.0% | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 046400) | $391K | $430K | +9.9% | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 046500) | $393K | $431K | +9.6% | |
| Pflugerville (Tract 044500) | $392K | $429K | +9.4% | |
| North Austin | $388K | $422K | +8.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Heights · 78704 · (Tract 20.4) | $392K | $417K | +6.4% | |
| North Austin | $410K | $501K | +22.2% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002448) | $333K | $406K | +22.1% | |
| Northeast Travis | $526K | $638K | +21.3% | |
| Steiner Ranch | $894K | $1.08M | +20.4% | |
| South Austin (Tract 002442) | $425K | $510K | +20.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Heights · 78704 · (Tract 20.4) | $392K | $417K | $234K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 045800) | $239K | $256K | $121K | |
| Northwest Travis | $160K | $170K | $116K | |
| Riverside | $170K | $179K | $106K | |
| Northeast Travis (Tract 044800) | $118K | $135K | $68K | |
| South Austin | $67K | $73K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.