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Bastrop, TX · ZIP 78659 · Census Tract 48021950504 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$419K
Downside (P10)
$336K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$435K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$548K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $231K | $259K | $314K | $355K | $398K | $419K | $432K | $440K | $435K |
| YoY Change | +12.1% | +21.1% | +13.1% | +12.0% | +5.5% | +3.0% | +2.0% | -1.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $361K | $352K | $336K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $506K | $527K | $548K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$361K to $506K
33.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$336K to $548K
48.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop | $411K | $435K | +6.1% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock (Tract 950806) | $337K | $367K | +8.9% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950403) | $351K | $380K | +8.0% | |
| Elgin | $361K | $381K | +5.3% | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock (Tract 950303) | $359K | $378K | +5.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop | $411K | $435K | +6.1% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950506) | $192K | $225K | +17.4% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950402) | $400K | $467K | +16.8% | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | +15.1% | |
| Elgin | $289K | $328K | +13.8% | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950505) | $286K | $324K | +13.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastrop | $411K | $435K | $212K | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950503) | $297K | $294K | $152K | |
| Cedar Creek-Red Rock | $284K | $309K | $152K | |
| Elgin | $262K | $267K | $147K | |
| Smithville | $254K | $293K | $124K | |
| Bastrop (Tract 950506) | $192K | $225K | $117K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.