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Dallas, TX · ZIP 75146 · Census Tract 48113016806 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$265K
Downside (P10)
$232K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$298K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$394K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $160K | $166K | $207K | $238K | $257K | $265K | $274K | $281K | $298K | $270K |
| YoY Change | +3.6% | +24.8% | +14.8% | +7.8% | +3.3% | +3.6% | +2.5% | +6.1% | -9.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $234K | $228K | $232K | $238K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $348K | $364K | $394K | $302K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$234K to $348K
41.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$238K to $302K
23.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | $260K | $298K | +14.9% | |
| Carrollton | $264K | $284K | +7.6% | |
| Garland (Tract 018121) | $266K | $283K | +6.5% | |
| Dallas | $266K | $283K | +6.4% | |
| Garland (Tract 019029) | $264K | $266K | +1.0% | |
| Mesquite | $266K | $262K | -1.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | $260K | $298K | +14.9% | |
| Dallas (Tract 000703) | $512K | $638K | +24.7% | |
| Dallas (Tract 008401) | $213K | $259K | +21.3% | |
| Grand Prairie | $259K | $315K | +21.3% | |
| Irving | $229K | $277K | +20.9% | |
| Dallas (Tract 013607) | $629K | $756K | +20.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster | $260K | $298K | $162K | |
| Balch Springs | $118K | $131K | $69K | |
| Dallas (Tract 021100) | $127K | $145K | $66K | |
| Dallas (Tract 018505) | $96K | $98K | $45K | |
| Dallas (Tract 017009) | $62K | $69K | $37K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.