Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
Denton, TX · ZIP 76227 · Census Tract 48121020205 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$461K
Downside (P10)
$413K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$519K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$636K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $199K | $189K | $227K | $231K | $265K | $339K | $344K | $424K | $438K | $444K | $461K | $469K | $501K | $519K |
| YoY Change | -5.0% | +20.1% | +1.7% | +14.7% | +28.0% | +1.4% | +23.4% | +3.3% | +1.3% | +4.0% | +1.7% | +6.7% | +3.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $426K | $423K | $413K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $535K | $591K | $636K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$426K to $535K
23.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$413K to $636K
42.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanger | $458K | $519K | +13.3% | |
| Justin-Roanoke (Tract 020314) | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020136) | $458K | $495K | +8.0% | |
| Little Elm | $457K | $520K | +13.7% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020124) | $457K | $511K | +11.8% | |
| Justin-Roanoke (Tract 020322) | $467K | $520K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanger | $458K | $519K | +13.3% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanger | $458K | $519K | $222K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.