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Denton, TX · ZIP 76208 · Census Tract 48121021415 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$395K
Downside (P10)
$315K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$436K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$581K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $267K | $284K | $351K | $367K | $399K | $395K | $402K | $428K | $436K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$127,706 | -$110,706 | -$44,306 | -$28,106 | +$4,094 | +$7,099 | +$33,389 | +$40,557 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.3% | -28.0% | -11.2% | -7.1% | +1.0% | +1.8% | +8.5% | +10.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $331K | $334K | $315K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $505K | $527K | $581K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$331K to $505K
43.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$315K to $581K
61.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton | $390K | $436K | +11.6% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020123) | $392K | $453K | +15.6% | |
| The Colony (Tract 021530) | $392K | $425K | +8.5% | |
| The Colony (Tract 021532) | $397K | $428K | +7.7% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020131) | $393K | $418K | +6.3% | |
| Dallas | $387K | $406K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton | $390K | $436K | +11.6% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton | $390K | $436K | $266K | |
| Lewisville-Flower Mound | $245K | $247K | $141K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Denton, TX · ZIP 76208 · Census Tract 48121021415 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$395K
Downside (P10)
$315K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$436K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$581K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $267K | $284K | $351K | $367K | $399K | $395K | $402K | $428K | $436K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$127,706 | -$110,706 | -$44,306 | -$28,106 | +$4,094 | +$7,099 | +$33,389 | +$40,557 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.3% | -28.0% | -11.2% | -7.1% | +1.0% | +1.8% | +8.5% | +10.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $331K | $334K | $315K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $505K | $527K | $581K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$331K to $505K
43.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$315K to $581K
61.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton | $390K | $436K | +11.6% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020123) | $392K | $453K | +15.6% | |
| The Colony (Tract 021530) | $392K | $425K | +8.5% | |
| The Colony (Tract 021532) | $397K | $428K | +7.7% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey (Tract 020131) | $393K | $418K | +6.3% | |
| Dallas | $387K | $406K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton | $390K | $436K | +11.6% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton | $390K | $436K | $266K | |
| Lewisville-Flower Mound | $245K | $247K | $141K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
