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Denton, TX · ZIP 75077 · Census Tract 48121021514 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$513K
Downside (P10)
$381K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$553K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$798K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $243K | $254K | $274K | $302K | $318K | $346K | $358K | $422K | $450K | $489K | $513K | $530K | $542K | $553K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$270,934 | -$259,234 | -$239,734 | -$211,634 | -$195,234 | -$167,834 | -$155,134 | -$91,234 | -$63,034 | -$24,934 | +$16,385 | +$28,238 | +$39,178 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -52.8% | -50.5% | -46.7% | -41.2% | -38.0% | -32.7% | -30.2% | -17.8% | -12.3% | -4.9% | +3.2% | +5.5% | +7.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $403K | $402K | $381K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $631K | $701K | $798K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$403K to $631K
43.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$381K to $798K
75.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland Village | $498K | $553K | +11.0% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021646) | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $523K | $607K | +16.2% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $507K | $549K | +8.1% | |
| The Colony | $493K | $527K | +6.8% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021632) | $498K | $532K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland Village | $498K | $553K | +11.0% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland Village | $498K | $553K | $417K | |
| Lewisville-Flower Mound | $245K | $247K | $141K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Denton, TX · ZIP 75077 · Census Tract 48121021514 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$513K
Downside (P10)
$381K
-26% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$553K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$798K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -26% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $243K | $254K | $274K | $302K | $318K | $346K | $358K | $422K | $450K | $489K | $513K | $530K | $542K | $553K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$270,934 | -$259,234 | -$239,734 | -$211,634 | -$195,234 | -$167,834 | -$155,134 | -$91,234 | -$63,034 | -$24,934 | +$16,385 | +$28,238 | +$39,178 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -52.8% | -50.5% | -46.7% | -41.2% | -38.0% | -32.7% | -30.2% | -17.8% | -12.3% | -4.9% | +3.2% | +5.5% | +7.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $403K | $402K | $381K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $631K | $701K | $798K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$403K to $631K
43.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$381K to $798K
75.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland Village | $498K | $553K | +11.0% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021646) | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $523K | $607K | +16.2% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $507K | $549K | +8.1% | |
| The Colony | $493K | $527K | +6.8% | |
| Carrollton (Tract 021632) | $498K | $532K | +6.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland Village | $498K | $553K | +11.0% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highland Village | $498K | $553K | $417K | |
| Lewisville-Flower Mound | $245K | $247K | $141K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
