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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Denton, TX · ZIP 75036 · Census Tract 48121021539 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$671K
Downside (P10)
$580K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$682K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$931K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $453K | $502K | $582K | $625K | $658K | $671K | $679K | $679K | $682K |
| YoY Change | +10.9% | +15.9% | +7.4% | +5.3% | +2.0% | +1.2% | -0.0% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $588K | $577K | $580K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $854K | $884K | $931K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$588K to $854K
39.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$580K to $931K
51.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco | $656K | $682K | +4.0% | |
| Flower Mound (Tract 021751) | $679K | $784K | +15.5% | |
| Flower Mound (Tract 021756) | $663K | $748K | +12.7% | |
| Frisco | $665K | $735K | +10.6% | |
| Lewisville-Flower Mound | $665K | $706K | +6.1% | |
| The Colony | $673K | $713K | +5.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco | $656K | $682K | +4.0% | |
| Denton | $240K | $295K | +23.2% | |
| Justin-Roanoke | $464K | $564K | +21.6% | |
| The Colony | $734K | $876K | +19.3% | |
| Carrollton | $489K | $577K | +18.0% | |
| Pilot Point-Aubrey | $345K | $405K | +17.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frisco | $656K | $682K | $351K | |
| Denton (Tract 020605) | $240K | $295K | $138K | |
| Denton (Tract 020800) | $235K | $258K | $112K | |
| Denton (Tract 020603) | $220K | $234K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.