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El Paso, TX · ZIP 79932 · Census Tract 48141010228 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$202K
Downside (P10)
$167K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$253K
+26% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +26%. The model forecasts this with 78% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $124K | $117K | $186K | $190K | $202K | $202K | $206K | $210K | $216K | $210K |
| YoY Change | -6.3% | +59.5% | +2.3% | +6.3% | -0.1% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +2.9% | -3.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $178K | $182K | $167K | $186K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $233K | $256K | $253K | $233K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$178K to $233K
26.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$186K to $233K
22.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Northwest | $203K | $216K | +6.3% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010224) | $198K | $224K | +13.2% | |
| El Paso East | $200K | $218K | +8.8% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010220) | $203K | $220K | +8.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 004303) | $204K | $218K | +7.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010323) | $198K | $210K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Northwest | $203K | $216K | +6.3% | |
| El Paso East | $241K | $286K | +18.6% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000113) | $138K | $164K | +18.1% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010354) | $212K | $250K | +18.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010349) | $164K | $192K | +17.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 003100) | $113K | $131K | +16.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Northwest | $203K | $216K | $86K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010505) | $97K | $106K | $47K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010333) | $92K | $100K | $43K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010504) | $77K | $86K | $42K | |
| El Paso (Tract 001400) | $70K | $76K | $41K | |
| El Paso (Tract 002800) | $79K | $84K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.