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El Paso, TX · ZIP 79928 · Census Tract 48141010369 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$244K
Downside (P10)
$225K
-8% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$286K
+17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$357K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -8% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $171K | $173K | $197K | $229K | $241K | $244K | $259K | $267K | $286K |
| YoY Change | +0.9% | +14.3% | +16.0% | +5.3% | +1.1% | +6.1% | +3.3% | +7.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $216K | $219K | $225K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $308K | $331K | $357K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$216K to $308K
35.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$225K to $357K
46.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso East | $241K | $286K | +18.6% | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010363) | $250K | $285K | +14.3% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010367) | $239K | $272K | +13.6% | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010362) | $241K | $260K | +7.9% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010217) | $241K | $259K | +7.4% | |
| El Paso (Tract 004313) | $250K | $265K | +6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso East | $241K | $286K | +18.6% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000113) | $138K | $164K | +18.1% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010354) | $212K | $250K | +18.0% | |
| El Paso (Tract 010349) | $164K | $192K | +17.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 003100) | $113K | $131K | +16.2% | |
| El Paso (Tract 000112) | $126K | $145K | +15.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso East | $241K | $286K | $133K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010505) | $97K | $106K | $47K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010333) | $92K | $100K | $43K | |
| El Paso East (Tract 010504) | $77K | $86K | $42K | |
| El Paso (Tract 001400) | $70K | $76K | $41K | |
| El Paso (Tract 002800) | $79K | $84K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.