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Ellis, TX · ZIP 76651 · Census Tract 48139061000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$226K
Downside (P10)
$196K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$252K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$324K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $92K | $95K | $96K | $100K | $132K | $148K | $181K | $212K | $224K | $226K | $232K | $244K | $252K | $231K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$136,395 | -$133,895 | -$130,495 | -$129,895 | -$125,595 | -$93,995 | -$77,295 | -$45,095 | -$14,095 | -$2,195 | +$5,948 | +$18,753 | +$25,950 | +$5,736 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.4% | -59.3% | -57.8% | -57.6% | -55.6% | -41.6% | -34.2% | -20.0% | -6.2% | -1.0% | +2.6% | +8.3% | +11.5% | +2.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $206K | $205K | $196K | $205K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $265K | $303K | $324K | $262K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$206K to $265K
25.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$205K to $262K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | $229K | $252K | +10.0% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 061100) | $243K | $282K | +16.2% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061600) | $231K | $265K | +14.8% | |
| Ferris | $218K | $238K | +9.2% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 061200) | $221K | $241K | +8.7% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061500) | $226K | $239K | +6.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | $229K | $252K | +10.0% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 060206) | $363K | $432K | +19.0% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061401) | $316K | $376K | +18.8% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 060300) | $300K | $355K | +18.5% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 061100) | $243K | $282K | +16.2% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061600) | $231K | $265K | +14.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | $229K | $252K | $127K | |
| Midlothian | $256K | $258K | $139K | |
| Ennis (Tract 061600) | $231K | $265K | $137K | |
| Waxahachie | $181K | $205K | $129K | |
| Ferris | $218K | $238K | $128K | |
| Ennis (Tract 061500) | $226K | $239K | $112K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Ellis, TX · ZIP 76651 · Census Tract 48139061000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$226K
Downside (P10)
$196K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$252K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$324K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $92K | $95K | $96K | $100K | $132K | $148K | $181K | $212K | $224K | $226K | $232K | $244K | $252K | $231K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$136,395 | -$133,895 | -$130,495 | -$129,895 | -$125,595 | -$93,995 | -$77,295 | -$45,095 | -$14,095 | -$2,195 | +$5,948 | +$18,753 | +$25,950 | +$5,736 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.4% | -59.3% | -57.8% | -57.6% | -55.6% | -41.6% | -34.2% | -20.0% | -6.2% | -1.0% | +2.6% | +8.3% | +11.5% | +2.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $206K | $205K | $196K | $205K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $265K | $303K | $324K | $262K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$206K to $265K
25.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$205K to $262K
24.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | $229K | $252K | +10.0% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 061100) | $243K | $282K | +16.2% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061600) | $231K | $265K | +14.8% | |
| Ferris | $218K | $238K | +9.2% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 061200) | $221K | $241K | +8.7% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061500) | $226K | $239K | +6.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | $229K | $252K | +10.0% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 060206) | $363K | $432K | +19.0% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061401) | $316K | $376K | +18.8% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 060300) | $300K | $355K | +18.5% | |
| Waxahachie (Tract 061100) | $243K | $282K | +16.2% | |
| Ennis (Tract 061600) | $231K | $265K | +14.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | $229K | $252K | $127K | |
| Midlothian | $256K | $258K | $139K | |
| Ennis (Tract 061600) | $231K | $265K | $137K | |
| Waxahachie | $181K | $205K | $129K | |
| Ferris | $218K | $238K | $128K | |
| Ennis (Tract 061500) | $226K | $239K | $112K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
