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Grayson, TX · ZIP 75020 · Census Tract 48181000400 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$145K
Downside (P10)
$117K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$154K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$203K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $64K | $63K | $70K | $75K | $91K | $104K | $106K | $121K | $131K | $141K | $145K | $150K | $153K | $154K |
| YoY Change | -1.6% | +10.7% | +8.5% | +21.1% | +13.9% | +1.7% | +14.0% | +8.7% | +7.2% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +2.1% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $109K | $121K | $117K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $172K | $186K | $203K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$109K to $172K
42.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$117K to $203K
56.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $144K | $154K | +6.7% | |
| Denison (Tract 000502) | $120K | $139K | +16.3% | |
| Denison (Tract 000700) | $151K | $167K | +10.3% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 000200) | $171K | $186K | +8.3% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001500) | $151K | $159K | +5.2% | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001400) | $125K | $131K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $144K | $154K | +6.7% | |
| Sherman | $282K | $332K | +17.6% | |
| Denison | $120K | $139K | +16.3% | |
| East Grayson | $271K | $307K | +13.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000304) | $251K | $282K | +12.3% | |
| Northwest Grayson (Tract 000306) | $222K | $248K | +11.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Grayson | $144K | $154K | $87K | |
| Sherman | $202K | $218K | $110K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001500) | $151K | $159K | $92K | |
| Denison (Tract 000502) | $120K | $139K | $89K | |
| Denison (Tract 000700) | $151K | $167K | $79K | |
| East Grayson (Tract 001400) | $125K | $131K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.