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Houston, TX · ZIP 77057 · Census Tract 48201431303 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$680K
Downside (P10)
$329K
-52% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$606K
-11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$878K
+29% by 2030
Base case: -11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -52% to +29%. The model forecasts this with 50% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $474K | $492K | $486K | $501K | $496K | $531K | $563K | $564K | $637K | $696K | $720K | $680K | $723K | $665K | $622K | $606K |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$205,422 | -$187,869 | -$193,279 | -$178,808 | -$183,494 | -$148,743 | -$116,260 | -$115,730 | -$42,999 | +$16,182 | +$40,672 | +$43,751 | -$15,028 | -$57,919 | -$73,602 | |
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.2% | -27.6% | -28.4% | -26.3% | -27.0% | -21.9% | -17.1% | -17.0% | -6.3% | +2.4% | +6.0% | +6.4% | -2.2% | -8.5% | -10.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $497K | $425K | $363K | $329K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $912K | $915K | $893K | $878K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$497K to $912K
57.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$329K to $878K
90.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifth Ward | $675K | $54.70M | +8006.0% | |
| East Houston (Tract 233400) | $676K | $49.41M | +7205.5% | |
| Airline | $667K | $27.10M | +3966.1% | |
| Kashmere | $676K | $24.06M | +3459.6% | |
| East Houston (Tract 232500) | $681K | $12.95M | +1801.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifth Ward | $787K | $238.29M | +30172.8% | |
| Northside Heights (Tract 210500) | $913K | $129.85M | +14115.3% | |
| Trinity Gardens | $580K | $79.83M | +13665.9% | |
| Aldine East | $587K | $73.26M | +12376.1% | |
| Northside Heights (Tract 210600) | $994K | $113.90M | +11357.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Channelview (Tract 233001) | $518K | $1.87M | $1.40M | |
| Spring | $459K | $1.43M | $1.20M | |
| Lake Houston | $331K | $1.14M | $1.07M | |
| Atascocita | $475K | $1.24M | $1.04M | |
| Channelview (Tract 233002) | $453K | $968K | $963K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Houston, TX · ZIP 77057 · Census Tract 48201431303 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$680K
Downside (P10)
$329K
-52% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$606K
-11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$878K
+29% by 2030
Base case: -11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -52% to +29%. The model forecasts this with 50% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $474K | $492K | $486K | $501K | $496K | $531K | $563K | $564K | $637K | $696K | $720K | $680K | $723K | $665K | $622K | $606K |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$205,422 | -$187,869 | -$193,279 | -$178,808 | -$183,494 | -$148,743 | -$116,260 | -$115,730 | -$42,999 | +$16,182 | +$40,672 | +$43,751 | -$15,028 | -$57,919 | -$73,602 | |
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.2% | -27.6% | -28.4% | -26.3% | -27.0% | -21.9% | -17.1% | -17.0% | -6.3% | +2.4% | +6.0% | +6.4% | -2.2% | -8.5% | -10.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $497K | $425K | $363K | $329K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $912K | $915K | $893K | $878K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$497K to $912K
57.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$329K to $878K
90.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifth Ward | $675K | $54.70M | +8006.0% | |
| East Houston (Tract 233400) | $676K | $49.41M | +7205.5% | |
| Airline | $667K | $27.10M | +3966.1% | |
| Kashmere | $676K | $24.06M | +3459.6% | |
| East Houston (Tract 232500) | $681K | $12.95M | +1801.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifth Ward | $787K | $238.29M | +30172.8% | |
| Northside Heights (Tract 210500) | $913K | $129.85M | +14115.3% | |
| Trinity Gardens | $580K | $79.83M | +13665.9% | |
| Aldine East | $587K | $73.26M | +12376.1% | |
| Northside Heights (Tract 210600) | $994K | $113.90M | +11357.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Channelview (Tract 233001) | $518K | $1.87M | $1.40M | |
| Spring | $459K | $1.43M | $1.20M | |
| Lake Houston | $331K | $1.14M | $1.07M | |
| Atascocita | $475K | $1.24M | $1.04M | |
| Channelview (Tract 233002) | $453K | $968K | $963K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
