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San Antonio, TX · ZIP 78231 · Census Tract 48029191504 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.00M
Downside (P10)
$860K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.14M
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.64M
+64% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +64%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $615K | $633K | $656K | $676K | $673K | $677K | $714K | $813K | $890K | $968K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | +2.9% | +3.6% | +3.1% | -0.5% | +0.6% | +5.5% | +13.9% | +9.5% | +8.8% | +3.6% | +4.8% | +5.2% | +2.8% | -11.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $845K | $861K | $860K | $898K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$845K to $1.27M
40.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$898K to $1.12M
22.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavano Park | $998K | $1.14M | +14.0% | |
| Alamo Heights (Tract 120301) | $741K | $823K | +11.2% | |
| San Antonio North | $766K | $832K | +8.5% | |
| Terrell Hills | $1.14M | $1.23M | +8.3% | |
| Olmos Park | $916K | $969K | +5.7% | |
| Alamo Heights (Tract 120302) | $815K | $842K | +3.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavano Park | $998K | $1.14M | +14.0% | |
| San Antonio (Tract 170402) | $117K | $151K | +28.6% | |
| San Antonio (Tract 161504) | $166K | $200K | +20.5% | |
| San Antonio (Tract 131402) | $180K | $216K | +19.8% | |
| San Antonio (Tract 161503) | $173K | $206K | +19.5% | |
| San Antonio (Tract 170300) | $101K | $121K | +19.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shavano Park | $998K | $1.14M | $785K | |
| San Antonio (Tract 130600) | $110K | $117K | $52K | |
| San Antonio (Tract 150400) | $116K | $124K | $52K | |
| San Antonio (Tract 171000) | $103K | $110K | $51K | |
| San Antonio (Tract 131100) | $113K | $123K | $48K | |
| San Antonio (Tract 161304) | $84K | $84K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.