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Wharton, TX · ZIP 77488 · Census Tract 48481740200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$138K
Downside (P10)
$122K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$145K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$214K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $58K | $63K | $97K | $108K | $89K | $88K | $79K | $96K | $85K | $136K | $138K | $139K | $143K | $145K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,945 | -$74,845 | -$41,345 | -$30,145 | -$48,545 | -$50,345 | -$58,445 | -$42,345 | -$53,145 | -$1,545 | +$1,050 | +$5,081 | +$6,658 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -58.0% | -54.3% | -30.0% | -21.9% | -35.2% | -36.5% | -42.4% | -30.7% | -38.6% | -1.1% | +0.8% | +3.7% | +4.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $127K | $128K | $122K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $172K | $175K | $214K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$127K to $172K
32.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$122K to $214K
63.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wharton | $137K | $145K | +5.3% | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | +11.4% | |
| Boling-Newgulf | $175K | $187K | +6.4% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740800) | $157K | $166K | +5.8% | |
| Wharton (Tract 740300) | $168K | $177K | +5.6% | |
| Wharton (Tract 740400) | $177K | $183K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wharton | $137K | $145K | +5.3% | |
| Wharton | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740901) | $252K | $290K | +15.3% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740902) | $245K | $275K | +12.2% | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | +11.4% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740700) | $98K | $108K | +10.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wharton | $137K | $145K | $92K | |
| Wharton (Tract 740500) | $199K | $230K | $97K | |
| El Campo (Tract 740800) | $157K | $166K | $97K | |
| Wharton (Tract 740400) | $177K | $183K | $91K | |
| El Campo (Tract 740700) | $98K | $108K | $89K | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | $86K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Wharton, TX · ZIP 77488 · Census Tract 48481740200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$138K
Downside (P10)
$122K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$145K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$214K
+55% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +55%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $58K | $63K | $97K | $108K | $89K | $88K | $79K | $96K | $85K | $136K | $138K | $139K | $143K | $145K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$79,945 | -$74,845 | -$41,345 | -$30,145 | -$48,545 | -$50,345 | -$58,445 | -$42,345 | -$53,145 | -$1,545 | +$1,050 | +$5,081 | +$6,658 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -58.0% | -54.3% | -30.0% | -21.9% | -35.2% | -36.5% | -42.4% | -30.7% | -38.6% | -1.1% | +0.8% | +3.7% | +4.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $127K | $128K | $122K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $172K | $175K | $214K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$127K to $172K
32.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$122K to $214K
63.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wharton | $137K | $145K | +5.3% | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | +11.4% | |
| Boling-Newgulf | $175K | $187K | +6.4% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740800) | $157K | $166K | +5.8% | |
| Wharton (Tract 740300) | $168K | $177K | +5.6% | |
| Wharton (Tract 740400) | $177K | $183K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wharton | $137K | $145K | +5.3% | |
| Wharton | $199K | $230K | +15.8% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740901) | $252K | $290K | +15.3% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740902) | $245K | $275K | +12.2% | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | +11.4% | |
| El Campo (Tract 740700) | $98K | $108K | +10.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wharton | $137K | $145K | $92K | |
| Wharton (Tract 740500) | $199K | $230K | $97K | |
| El Campo (Tract 740800) | $157K | $166K | $97K | |
| Wharton (Tract 740400) | $177K | $183K | $91K | |
| El Campo (Tract 740700) | $98K | $108K | $89K | |
| El Campo (Tract 741000) | $161K | $180K | $86K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
