County 49460, UT · Census Tract 49460005761 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.06M
Downside (P10)
$444K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$838K
-21% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.49M
+40% by 2030
Base case: -21% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +40%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 49460 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.0M | $889K | $839K | $838K |
| YoY Change | -4.2% | -12.6% | -5.5% | -0.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $638K | $491K | $429K | $444K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$804K to $1.41M
57.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$444K to $1.49M
124.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002308 | $1.06M | $839K | -21.1% |
| Tract 005567 | $1.05M | $760K | -27.9% |
| Tract 005541 | $1.09M | $910K | -16.2% |
| Tract 006427 | $1.09M | $821K | -24.6% |
| Tract 002654 | $1.09M | $949K | -13.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 006320 | $1.88M | $2.03M | +7.7% |
| Tract 005923 | $1.65M | $1.52M | -7.9% |
| Tract 002751 | $1.17M | $1.01M | -13.0% |
| Tract 002654 | $1.09M | $949K | -13.3% |
| Tract 005541 | $1.09M | $910K | -16.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 006207 | $1.42M | $1.06M | $801K |
| Tract 006427 | $1.09M | $821K | $812K |
| Tract 006249 | $1.23M | $876K | $891K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources