What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51510200409 in Alexandria?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $409,443 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.4%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 51510200409 in Alexandria?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $409,443 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.4%.

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Parcel 51510200409 (Alexandria) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 51510200409, Alexandria Home Price Forecast

Alexandria, VA · ZIP 22304 · Census Tract 51510200409 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$409K

Downside (P10)

$356K

-13% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$464K

+13% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$565K

+38% by 2030

Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$280K	$289K	$396K	$434K	$408K	$409K	$431K	$433K	$464K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$129,643	-$120,343	-$13,643	+$24,157	-$1,343		+$21,586	+$23,144	+$55,045
Growth % vs 2026	-31.7%	-29.4%	-3.3%	+5.9%	-0.3%		+5.3%	+5.7%	+13.4%
Downside (P10)							$378K	$371K	$356K
Upside (P90)							$501K	$526K	$565K

Forecast Confidence

75%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.

Near-term band

$378K to $501K

28.7% of median

Long-horizon band

$356K to $565K

45.1% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +13.4% · Spread: 45%

·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 51510200409, Alexandria on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).