Chesterfield, VA · ZIP 23235 · Census Tract 51041100106 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$410K
Downside (P10)
$328K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$443K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$563K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +37%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Chesterfield markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $240K | $241K | $254K | $269K | $287K | $295K | $315K | $364K | $386K | $402K | $410K | $418K | $426K | $443K |
| YoY Change | +0.4% | +5.7% | +5.7% | +6.7% | +2.7% | +7.1% | +15.5% | +6.0% | +4.0% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +1.8% | +4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $350K | $338K | $328K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $488K | $533K | $563K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$350K to $488K
32.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$328K to $563K
53.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bon Air · Richmond · (Tract 1001.6) | $410K | $443K | +7.8% | |
| Bermuda | $402K | $482K | +20.0% | |
| Clover Hill | $419K | $417K | -0.3% | |
| Bermuda | $420K | $462K | +10.0% | |
| Woodlake | $421K | $448K | +6.5% | |
| Clover Hill | $394K | $448K | +13.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bon Air · Richmond · (Tract 1001.6) | $410K | $443K | +7.8% | |
| Bermuda | $402K | $482K | +20.0% | |
| Dale | $232K | $277K | +19.2% | |
| Midlothian | $432K | $513K | +18.7% | |
| Matoaca | $564K | $661K | +17.1% | |
| Matoaca | $471K | $549K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bon Air · Richmond · (Tract 1001.6) | $410K | $443K | $235K | |
| Bellwood | $121K | $129K | $87K | |
| Ettrick | $216K | $245K | $97K | |
| Manchester | $319K | $343K | $116K | |
| Manchester | $199K | $226K | $119K | |
| Dale | $330K | $346K | $132K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.