County 51080, VA · Census Tract 51080001861 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$376K
Downside (P10)
$295K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$485K
+29% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$820K
+118% by 2030
Base case: +29% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +118%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51080 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $376K | $430K | $433K | $446K | $485K |
| YoY Change | +14.3% | +0.6% | +3.2% | +8.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $329K | $287K | $280K | $295K | |
| Upside (P90) | $599K | $640K | $722K | $820K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$321K to $478K
41.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$295K to $820K
108.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 007849 | $377K | $462K | +22.5% |
| Tract 001308 | $375K | $492K | +31.0% |
| Tract 002886 | $378K | $509K | +34.9% |
| Tract 015103 | $375K | $501K | +33.8% |
| Tract 007548 | $374K | $453K | +21.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000985 | $330K | $518K | +57.0% |
| Tract 014803 | $312K | $486K | +55.6% |
| Tract 003720 | $309K | $477K | +54.1% |
| Tract 018249 | $324K | $490K | +51.2% |
| Tract 000626 | $298K | $449K | +50.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 003649 | $299K | $401K | $273K |
| Tract 018207 | $292K | $412K | $293K |
| Tract 002381 | $312K | $420K | $296K |
| Tract 015446 | $326K | $410K | $318K |
| Tract 018223 | $286K | $401K | $322K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources