County 51142, VA · Census Tract 51142280009 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$941K
Downside (P10)
$448K
-52% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$880K
-6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.78M
+89% by 2030
Base case: -6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -52% to +89%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 51142 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $941K | $975K | $886K | $865K | $880K |
| YoY Change | +3.7% | -9.1% | -2.4% | +1.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $632K | $513K | $448K | $448K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M | $1.8M |
The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.
1-Year Spread
$826K to $1.21M
40.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$448K to $1.78M
151.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680007 | $1.01M | $923K | -8.4% |
| Tract 920000 | $1.02M | $903K | -11.4% |
| Tract 880001 | $1.02M | $897K | -12.4% |
| Tract 800007 | $852K | $854K | +0.2% |
| Tract 480003 | $847K | $829K | -2.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 600003 | $798K | $825K | +3.5% |
| Tract 800007 | $852K | $854K | +0.2% |
| Tract 520002 | $787K | $771K | -2.0% |
| Tract 480003 | $847K | $829K | -2.1% |
| Tract 680007 | $1.01M | $923K | -8.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880001 | $1.02M | $897K | $781K |
| Tract 520002 | $787K | $771K | $824K |
| Tract 600003 | $798K | $825K | $863K |
| Tract 920000 | $1.02M | $903K | $901K |
| Tract 680007 | $1.01M | $923K | $939K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources