County 51691, VA · Census Tract 51691760203 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$677K
Downside (P10)
$417K
-38% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$670K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.10M
+62% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -38% to +62%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51691 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $677K | $698K | $649K | $640K | $670K |
| YoY Change | +3.1% | -7.1% | -1.4% | +4.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $521K | $444K | $432K | $417K | |
| Upside (P90) | $906K | $895K | $952K | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$580K to $812K
34.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$417K to $1.10M
101.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880002 | $793K | $864K | +9.0% |
| Tract 240008 | $512K | $588K | +14.8% |
| Tract 160201 | $490K | $626K | +27.8% |
| Tract 000109 | $472K | $604K | +28.1% |
| Tract 440002 | $439K | $551K | +25.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 960003 | $356K | $567K | +59.2% |
| Tract 320009 | $349K | $508K | +45.7% |
| Tract 000109 | $472K | $604K | +28.1% |
| Tract 160201 | $490K | $626K | +27.8% |
| Tract 440002 | $439K | $551K | +25.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 320009 | $349K | $508K | $420K |
| Tract 440002 | $439K | $551K | $445K |
| Tract 000109 | $472K | $604K | $509K |
| Tract 160201 | $490K | $626K | $515K |
| Tract 960003 | $356K | $567K | $605K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources