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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
County 51705, VA · Census Tract 51705000189 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.03M
Downside (P10)
$534K
-48% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$985K
-4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.64M
+60% by 2030
Base case: -4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -48% to +60%. The model forecasts this with 38% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.1M | $993K | $959K | $985K |
| YoY Change | +3.8% | -6.9% | -3.5% | +2.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $732K | $588K | $538K | $534K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.6M |
The spread between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with high caution. This reflects sparse local data or extreme historical volatility.
1-Year Spread
$732K to $1.51M
72.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$534K to $1.64M
112.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000189 | $1.03M | $985K | -4.2% | |
| Tract 000066 | $1.03M | $996K | -2.9% | |
| Tract 000147 | $853K | $825K | -3.3% | |
| Tract 000082 | $1.03M | $971K | -5.6% | |
| Tract 000367 | $1.06M | $948K | -11.0% | |
| Tract 000163 | $1.04M | $893K | -14.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000189 | $1.03M | $985K | -4.2% | |
| Tract 000105 | $772K | $780K | +1.1% | |
| Tract 000066 | $1.03M | $996K | -2.9% | |
| Tract 000147 | $853K | $825K | -3.3% | |
| Tract 000082 | $1.03M | $971K | -5.6% | |
| Tract 000367 | $1.06M | $948K | -11.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000189 | $1.03M | $985K | $1.11M | |
| Tract 000163 | $1.04M | $893K | $1.06M | |
| Tract 000367 | $1.06M | $948K | $1.02M | |
| Tract 000082 | $1.03M | $971K | $998K | |
| Tract 000147 | $853K | $825K | $911K | |
| Tract 000105 | $772K | $780K | $840K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources