County 51960, VA · Census Tract 51960001208 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$993K
Downside (P10)
$796K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.00M
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.44M
+45% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +45%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51960 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $993K | $1.1M | $1.0M | $976K | $1.0M |
| YoY Change | +9.8% | -7.6% | -3.0% | +2.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $929K | $846K | $787K | $796K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$892K to $1.19M
29.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$796K to $1.44M
64.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000403 | $1.02M | $1.03M | +0.9% |
| Tract 001622 | $1.03M | $1.12M | +8.6% |
| Tract 000649 | $1.05M | $965K | -7.7% |
| Tract 000762 | $1.06M | $1.12M | +5.7% |
| Tract 001321 | $1.06M | $996K | -6.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001541 | $1.19M | $1.33M | +11.5% |
| Tract 001622 | $1.03M | $1.12M | +8.6% |
| Tract 000762 | $1.06M | $1.12M | +5.7% |
| Tract 000982 | $1.14M | $1.21M | +5.7% |
| Tract 000966 | $1.07M | $1.11M | +3.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001486 | $1.11M | $1.13M | $506K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources