County 51978, VA · Census Tract 51978012289 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.01M
Downside (P10)
$438K
-56% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$889K
-12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.35M
+34% by 2030
Base case: -12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -56% to +34%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 51978 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.0M | $945K | $872K | $889K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | -9.8% | -7.7% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $674K | $510K | $442K | $438K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$809K to $1.30M
48.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$438K to $1.35M
102.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 031228 | $1.02M | $823K | -19.3% |
| Tract 000343 | $983K | $906K | -7.8% |
| Tract 005885 | $978K | $1.09M | +11.1% |
| Tract 005445 | $976K | $811K | -16.9% |
| Tract 005908 | $968K | $779K | -19.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 010320 | $536K | $648K | +20.9% |
| Tract 010281 | $517K | $622K | +20.4% |
| Tract 032049 | $750K | $900K | +20.0% |
| Tract 010508 | $543K | $643K | +18.4% |
| Tract 031749 | $891K | $1.05M | +17.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 009302 | $560K | $597K | $583K |
| Tract 031969 | $901K | $955K | $622K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources