County 51998, VA · Census Tract 51998000789 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$2.37M
Downside (P10)
$1.45M
-39% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.81M
-24% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.16M
-9% by 2030
Base case: -24% by 2030, with a forecast range from -39% to -9%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 51998 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $2.4M | $2.3M | $2.1M | $1.9M | $1.8M |
| YoY Change | -1.5% | -10.8% | -9.0% | -4.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.9M | $1.7M | $1.5M | $1.5M | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.7M | $2.4M | $2.2M | $2.2M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.10M to $2.58M
20.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.45M to $2.16M
39.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000585 | $2.28M | $1.55M | -31.9% |
| Tract 000802 | $2.26M | $1.55M | -31.4% |
| Tract 000488 | $2.54M | $1.84M | -27.7% |
| Tract 000268 | $2.62M | $1.74M | -33.7% |
| Tract 000446 | $2.67M | $1.95M | -26.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000446 | $2.67M | $1.95M | -26.8% |
| Tract 000488 | $2.54M | $1.84M | -27.7% |
| Tract 000802 | $2.26M | $1.55M | -31.4% |
| Tract 000585 | $2.28M | $1.55M | -31.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000802 | $2.26M | $1.55M | $1.00M |
| Tract 000585 | $2.28M | $1.55M | $1.11M |
| Tract 000268 | $2.62M | $1.74M | $1.11M |
| Tract 000488 | $2.54M | $1.84M | $1.17M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources