County 51999, VA · Census Tract 51999000306 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.32M
Downside (P10)
$1.45M
-56% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.27M
-31% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.75M
-17% by 2030
Base case: -31% by 2030, with a forecast range from -56% to -17%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 51999 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.3M | $3.3M | $2.8M | $2.4M | $2.3M |
| YoY Change | -1.8% | -14.9% | -13.8% | -4.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $2.4M | $1.9M | $1.6M | $1.5M | |
| Upside (P90) | $3.7M | $3.2M | $2.8M | $2.7M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.77M to $3.63M
25.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.45M to $2.75M
57.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000487 | $3.28M | $2.20M | -33.1% |
| Tract 000128 | $3.15M | $2.14M | -32.2% |
| Tract 000403 | $3.54M | $2.31M | -34.9% |
| Tract 000267 | $3.56M | $2.33M | -34.7% |
| Tract 000102 | $3.58M | $2.33M | -35.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000364 | $2.98M | $2.16M | -27.7% |
| Tract 000128 | $3.15M | $2.14M | -32.2% |
| Tract 000487 | $3.28M | $2.20M | -33.1% |
| Tract 000267 | $3.56M | $2.33M | -34.7% |
| Tract 000403 | $3.54M | $2.31M | -34.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000403 | $3.54M | $2.31M | $1.30M |
| Tract 000364 | $2.98M | $2.16M | $1.32M |
| Tract 000128 | $3.15M | $2.14M | $1.33M |
| Tract 000487 | $3.28M | $2.20M | $1.45M |
| Tract 000102 | $3.58M | $2.33M | $1.60M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources