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Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22003 · Census Tract 51059450701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$730K
Downside (P10)
$617K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$837K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.08M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $456K | $475K | $489K | $511K | $532K | $562K | $604K | $656K | $685K | $703K | $730K | $729K | $767K | $837K | $733K |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$273K | -$254K | -$241K | -$219K | -$198K | -$168K | -$126K | -$74K | -$45K | -$27K | -$1K | +$38K | +$108K | +$3K | |
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.5% | -34.9% | -33.0% | -30.0% | -27.2% | -23.0% | -17.2% | -10.1% | -6.2% | -3.6% | -0.2% | +5.1% | +14.7% | +0.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $658K | $632K | $617K | $645K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $925K | $990K | $1.1M | $822K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$658K to $925K
36.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$645K to $822K
24.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
No comparable areas found for this neighborhood. This usually happens when only a small number of tracts in the county have forecast coverage.
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.