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Fairfax, VA · ZIP 22003 · Census Tract 51059440202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$513K
Downside (P10)
$421K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$537K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$851K
+66% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +66%. The model forecasts this with 56% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $516K | $512K | $529K | $490K | $492K | $478K | $472K | $478K | $561K | $505K | $513K | $528K | $534K | $537K |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$3K | -$891 | +$16K | -$23K | -$22K | -$35K | -$41K | -$35K | +$48K | -$8K | +$15K | +$21K | +$24K | |
| Growth % vs 2026 | +0.6% | -0.2% | +3.1% | -4.6% | -4.2% | -6.9% | -8.1% | -6.8% | +9.3% | -1.7% | +2.9% | +4.1% | +4.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $431K | $422K | $421K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $667K | $730K | $851K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$431K to $667K
44.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$421K to $851K
80.1% of median
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources